The relative contribution of in situ reproduction versus immigration to the recruitment process is important to ecologists. Pdf a fullcapture hierarchical bayesian model of pollocks. A robust design that combines open and closed models pollock 1982, entire. Here, we present capturerecapture models and estimators that incorporate temporary emigration and, hence, yield estimates that are generally not biased by such movement. These multiple observations occur because each nesting turtle will lay several clutches of eggs and thus each turtle is susceptible to. Application of bayesian robust design model to assess the.
We first use age information to estimate the entry probabilities of new animals originating via in situ reproduction. K primary sampling occasions spaced out such that expect mortality and recruitment. The design can be viewed as a robust design pollock 1982. We demonstrate that the use of the robust design is highly recommended when sampling removal data. We demonstrate that the use of the robust design is. Robust design and the use of auxiliary variables in. Pollock s 1981, 1982 original work was ad hoc rather than being based on a single. Relationship of key parameters to basic sampling structure of pollock s robust design. The robust design capturerecapture model the robust design rd capturerecapture model pollock 1982, kendall and pollock 1992, kendall et al. Pollock 1982 proposed a robust design that would allow the use of both closed and open population models in an ad hoc fashion for longterm studies. The js method for estimating survival rate tends to be robust to heterogeneity in detection probability, but its abun danceand recruitment estimators are not. For each site, we modeled and estimated population sizes n as well as ancillary parameters of survival probabilities s, capture probabilities p, recapture probabilities c, and temporary emigration parameters and. Pollock 1982 proposed that closedpopulation methods be used to analyze data from sessions within a period and.
Under the robust design, k secondary samples are obtained for each primary period. Breeding bird survey data conducted along secondary roads a route is 24. Pollock s robust design pollock 1982 proposed that closedpopulation methods be used to analyze data from sessions within a period and js methods be used for data from multiple periods. Combining band recovery data and pollocks robust design to. Abundance and demographic parameters of bottlenose dolphins. Loglinearmodelsfortherobustdesign inmarkrecaptureexperiments. We used a robust design survey plan pollock 1982 with 2 surveys in most years and analyzed the data with program mark white and burnham 1999 to estimate encounter rates p, apparent survival rates w, rates of population change l, and population sizes n. Multiscale occupancy estimation and modelling using. Estimating temporary emigration and breeding proportions. A likelihoodbased approach to capturerecapture estimation of demographic parameters under the robust design wl kendall, kh pollock, c brownie biometrics, 293308, 1995. Abstract amanda perofsky improving population size estimation for larval stream plethodontids under the direction of john c. Pollocks robust design pollock 1982 proposed that closedpopulation methods be used to analyze data from sessions within a period and js methods be used for data from multiple periods.
The use of a robust capturerecapture design in small mammal. Pollock s robust design pollock 1982 consists of two or more secondary samples over relatively short intervals. Primary sessions may include one or more secondary sessions. The robust design was introduced by pollock 1982 as a combination of models for closed and open populations in mark recapture studies. A capturerecapture design robust to unequal probability of capture. Lecture 09 robust design pollock s robust design resources. This cited by count includes citations to the following articles in scholar. Methods in ecology and evolution estimating adult sex.
Pollock 1982 suggested to repeat sampling during periods of population closure in order to increase the suite of estimable parameters and reduce bias from unequal detectability pollock and nichols, 1990. Using dna sampling to estimate population demographics of. However, the lack of exhaustive robust assessments 60 of population abundance and demographic parameters hampers our ability to evaluate the effects of 61 human activities on this species in the region. Estimating temporary emigration using capturerecapture data. The robust design of pollock 1982 combines the abundance estimation feature of closedpopulation models with the survival estimation component of openpopulation models.
Bayesian binomial mixture models for estimating abundance in. The animals are possibly captured at several of these sessions. Finally, because the closed population models used in the secondary sampling periods can incorporate individual capture heterogeneity, robust design can be used to. A robust design capturerecapture model with multiple age classes augmented with population assignment data. The occupancy framework presented here differs from that of mackenzie et al. A robustdesign formulation of the incidence function model. Multiscale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple. Loglinear models for the robust design in markrecapture. Pollock s robust design rd 46, 47, 48 offers an alternative approach. Pollocks robust design the robust design model is a combination of the cormackjollyseber cjs cormack 1964, jolly 1965, seber 1965 live recapture model and the closed capture models.
Abundance estimation with a transient model under the. Jun 26, 2014 permit holders must use an open population model design in their cmr survey pollock et al. Capturerecapture data arising from pollocks robust design provide the basis for ob. Capturerecapture data arising from pollock s 1982 robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. Mar 29, 20 the relative contribution of in situ reproduction versus immigration to the recruitment process is important to ecologists. Robust design allows estimation of several parameters that are not estimable under either. The design consists of two levels of sampling periods. A fullcapture hierarchical bayesian model of pollocks. Precision, accuracy, and costs of survey methods for. Pollocks 1982 robust design model combines aspects of closedpopulation and openpopulation models by nesting secondary sampling periods that are temporally proximate i.
Hierarchical multiscale occupancy estimation for monitoring. A robust design capturerecapture analysis of abundance. Robust design pollock 1982 robust to unequal probability of capture and survival population open between 3 primary sampling periodsyears population closed within 8 secondary sampling periodsweeks pop. We chose to consider only the huggins robust design model for two reasons. The journal of wildlife management 46 3, 752757, 1982. However, the modelling differs from that of mackenzie et al. Js model jolly 1965, seber 1965 or a robust design cjs.
This is referred to as the robust design, developed by pollock 1982 initially for capturerecapture studies but subsequently extended to other designs, including presenceabsence studies as considered here. An estimation tool for capturerecapture data collected under pollocks robust design article pdf available in bird study 46sup001 january 1999 with 41 reads. Here, we attempted to use extensions of a mr study design, the multistate closed robust design. By the second year nearly all resident adult animals available for. The robust capturerecapture design allows components of. Kh pollock, jd nichols, tr simons, gl farnsworth, ll bailey, jr sauer. Data are observations of marked individuals from a robust sampling design pollock 1982. Pollock 1982 suggested to repeat sampling during periods of. Overview of pollocks closed robust design and the hidden markov model. First introduced by pollock 1982 and formalized by kendall et al. Open population abundance estimation using repeated presence. Similarly, kendall, nichols, and hines 1997, ecology 51, 563578 developed models to estimate temporary emigration under pollocks 1982, journal of wildlife management 46, 757760 robust design. Breeding return times and abundance in capturerecapture. Annual probability of breeding increased from 067 0042 for 2yearold females to 090.
Krutzen m, bejder l and pollock kh 2016 a fullcapture hierarchical bayesian model of pollocks closed robust design and application to dolphins. Since its development in the late 1800s petersen 1895, the mr approach has been widely used for assessing wildlife abundance, distribution and demographic processes. Because the transient rate estimated by pradel et al. We modeled and estimated parameters using robust design statistical models by pollock 1982. Open population abundance estimation using repeated. Soil correlates and mortality from giraffe skin disease in. Pollock 1982 proposed a robust design that would allow the use of both closed. There may be a single secondary session per primary session this limits identi. Pollock s robust design the robust design model is a combination of the cormackjollyseber cjs cormack 1964, jolly 1965, seber 1965 live recapture model and the closed capture models. To accommodate data collected according to the robust design pollock, 1982 requires a minor change to the observation model. Secondary sampling sessions are nested within primary sessions and all turnover births, deaths, immigration or emigration is between primary sessions pollock 1982. The robust capturerecapture design pollock 1982 allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses otis et ai. Pollocks robust design pollock 1982 consists of two or more secondary samples over relatively short intervals.
Occupancy at a site is assumed to be closed within a season and detection rates are estimated from repeated visits to sites within a season mackenzie et al. Ecological and methodological factors affecting detectability. Pdf we present a hierarchical bayesian version of pollocks. Some experiments in ecological studies can be viewed as a robust design e. The robust design of pollock 1982 was used to estimate parameters of a maryland microtus pennsylvanicus population.
The robust design refers both to a sampling design and the class of models used for its analysis. It is ideal for longterm monitoring where both abundance and survival are of interest. This design comprises a series of shortterm studies, each one amenable to an analysis with closed population models. Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional jollyseber estimators pollock, 1982. Journal of applied ecology evaluating population recovery. For each secondary trapping session i, the probability of. A capturerecapture design robust to unequal probability of. The use of a robust capturerecapture design in small. We estimated these demographic parameters for males and females. Breeding probability varied with female age but not across years, indicating lack of response to increased population density. We describe a likelihoodbased approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population.
We consider the problem of estimating the population size for an open population where the data are collected over secondary periods within primary periods according to a robust design suggested by pollock 1982, journal of wildlife management 46, 757760. Sampling design for monitoring the dolphin populations in. Abstract amanda perofsky improving population size estimation. For example, the american robin turdus migratorius data we consider from. The robust design was introduced by pollock 1982 as a com bination of models for closed and open populations in mark recapture studies. Our study contained four primary periods, each with 3 secondary samples. Detection histories are assumed to be stored in an object of class capthist from the package secr. During the 1980s, many companies finally realized that the old methods for ensuring quality were not competitive with the japanese methods. Therobustdesignmodelselected forthisstudywasthemarkovianemigrationmodel,which permits unequal emigration and immigration rates across surveyperiods. The target species may or may not be detected at each survey and is not falsely detected when absent. We show that this approach permits estimation of transitions in site occupancy i. Journal of applied ecology occupancy estimation and the. This is akin to pollock s robust design for markrecapture studies wherekt surveys represent secondary sampling periods within each primary period pollock 1982, pollock et al. Specifically, the data are viewed as coming from a robust design pollock 1982 with multiple v 2 june 2011 v volume 26 v article 69 mcgowan et al.
Here we consider a robust design superpopulation capturerecapture model for a population with two age classes augmented with population assignment data. In this chapter, we consider pollocks robust design, an approach which will allow us considerable. Occupancy modeling methods to utilize the north american. Abundance estimation with a transient model under the robust. Abstract amanda perofsky improving population size. Capturerecapture data arising from pollocks 1982 robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration.